Sports and Pro-Life: Romney Will Win
Voters, Sports and Abortion: Obama Loses on November 6th
President Obama has led in polls in Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania. But he will lose those swing states come Election Day.
Why? Sports and abortion.
Traditional analysis from 2010 shows that Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan have voted solid Red.
And the best indication of future elections are past results. But there are other compelling trends.
The mid-term election vote tracks with two other passions of America: Sports and Abortion. There seems to be an intriguing correlation. The support for university athletic programs mirror the Red State-Blue State divide.
Professor Charles T. Clotfelter has crunched the data in his book, Big-Time Sports in American Universities showing that college football game attendance overlaps our Red-Blue politics.
For example, there is high sports attendance in Oklahoma, Mississippi, Louisiana and Alabama—Red States. And low attendance in California, New York, Massachusetts and Obama’s home state of Illinois—Blue States.
In particular Michigan and Pennsylvania have significant per capita attendance to university football games. Ohio State University spends over $102 million per year on athletics-the second largest budget in the country behind number one University of Texas at Austin with 112 million dollars. These Red States are serious about sports. Blue States not so much.
Mr. Clotfelter writes that sports demonstrate, “the principle of meritocracy” a trait not often embraced by liberals. Certainly not by president Obama.
Professor Clotfelter’s balanced research also reveals the political tendencies of the most likely of university game attendees—the boosters. His findings did not dispute the liberal leanings of academia.
However, he explains that boosters, the fans who support their teams with open hearts and open wallets, are conservative.
The Big Bucks of Republicans are the biggest funders of university athletics. If a sports-fan attends a college game, he likely votes conservative. Conservative Red State Pro-Lifers are more likely to show up and pay for a university athletic contest.
Liberals in Blue State California, Massachusetts and New York are Pro-Choice and are more likely to sit at home.
Let us not assume that not all conservatives are Pro-Life. But we do know that the Democrat Party has a Pro-Choice plank and the GOP a Pro-Life agenda. This gives us the second link to the American Passion Play of abortion.
The representatives of these three key swing states have enacted commonsense laws to protect the unborn and their mothers. Among these simple laws in each state,
• Abortion clinic regulations to meet standards to safely terminate and remove an unborn baby.
• Fetal homicide legislation to criminalize “killing of an unborn child at any stage of gestation” (apart from an abortion by a licensed professional).
• Parental consent for an abortion on a minor—permission is needed to abort a grandchild.
• A 24-hour waiting period to reflect on the unalterable decision to terminate the pregnancy.
• Optional “Choose Life” vehicle license plates.
Further, Ohio and Michigan have ultrasound laws so that the mother can see a picture of her unborn baby. Ohio and Pennsylvania require abortionists to have local hospital admitting privileges.
The election will be determined by the contiguous sports-loving, Pro-Life Red States: Pennsylvania-Ohio-Michigan.
Obama will not win tomorrow, 6 November.
Jack Yoest is a management professor at The Catholic University of America. His daughter is an NCAA Division 1 Championship athlete at the University of Virginia.